Sunday, April 20, 2008

April 17-20, 2008 – Bighorn River, Ft. Smith, MT

Thursday, April 17, 2008 – Bighorn River, Ft. Smith, MT

Flows around 1,920 cfs, water was clear. Wade fished 3-Mile access. Weather was mild – close to 50 degrees, not much wind – mostly sunny.

Left my house around 3:30 am en route to pick up the boys. Met Nate at his house around 4am, packed his gear and headed to Chad's. Picked up Chad and Matt at around 4:30 am and we were on the road. The trip went very smoothly – only about 7 hours with stops in Wheatland and Sheridan, WY. The weather was pretty crappy in Denver, with wet snow lining the roads making the road slick. But, the road dried out around Loveland and it was clear sailing from there.

We pulled into Buster's place around 11:15, but he was nowhere to be found – we did see his pups, but no truck in the yard and no answer when we knocked on the door. We drove to Cottonwood and got our cabin, suited up, went to get a parking pass and then hit 3 Mile access to wade fish.

Chad and Matt headed down river, while Nate and I fished the island and the boat ramp areas. Nate got an opportunity to do some dry fly fishing right off as there were some good sized fish taking dries in the slack water near the ramp.



He caught a half dozen nice fish right there while I fished the spill way right there by the ramp. I caught a few little guys – it was nice to get going. I fished more up river without any luck. I circled the island and was fishing the main channel out away from the ramp and hooked a huge pig right where the rip met the slow pull out – this fish was huge – although I did not have him on very long. He porpoised quickly and then down and was long gone. I was angry, but moved on – there was a nice area where a point broke the water and I fished the soft edge. I hooked a nice large fish and he pulled me down river a bit and then popped off. I was pretty bummed losing two fish in a row. I fished a little more with little luck and then headed back to the boat ramp to meet up with Chad. I did see meet up with this little guy - who was quite curious, but not quite enough to come over and say hello.



Nate was at the ramp as well, and we were ready to head out, but Matt was nowhere to be found. Nate and I decided to go to the cabin and start dinner and then come back for Chad and Matt. Nate went back and got them about 40 minutes later and I had dinner ready.

We ate dinner, met up with Tim and his dad and then decided later on to try and hit the Afterbay Dam section for some pigs – since we had heard they were stacked up there and it was almost a full moon. We went out around 8:30 and we were back at 9:30pm – we had no luck pitching streamers – actually I lost 3 rigs and 6 flies! We were in bed at 10pm.



Friday, April 18, 2008 – Bighorn River, Ft. Smith, MT

Flows around 1,920 cfs, water was clear. Rented a boat and floated from 3 Mile to Bighorn Weather was nice in the morning (40 degrees) and beautiful in the afternoon – closer to 70 degrees. Steady wind at our backs and mostly sunny.

We hit the very first run down from 3 Mile access. The run treated us well, I hooked two medium sized browns, Nate hooked a couple nice rainbows at the end of the run, and Matt hooked a huge brown that took him across the river. The wind was so bad that Nate almost couldn't get back to Matt on the other side of the river. The fishing was ok, but nothing spectacular. We couldn't get consistently on fish, in fact, I probably went 4 hours without catching a fish. Nate was consistently picking up fish. We moved down to the Shelf Hole and I couldn't catch a damn thing – just couldn't figure it out. After having decent luck with a red rojo midge size 18, the fish just weren't taking anything we were throwing. We moved down to the Colorado Club hole where I had caught a ton of fish last year, but I couldn't catch a fish there either. I had a big pig on there too, but the fish took a long run and I couldn't turn him and he popped off.

We moved down again where we met up with Chad and Dave – who were fishing together out of Dave's boat. They were having amazing luck in this hole and let us jump in. Immediately I hooked two huge browns that were very thick and had strong shoulders. Both were legit 19 inchers and were probably the largest browns I have ever caught. All of the browns seemed bigger than last year – which was amazing because last year they seemed bigger than the year before. The first brown wasn't very colorful – but he fought hard and was huge – thick and long. He took the rojo midge. The second brown was in almost the exact same spot, and he too hit hard, but didn't fight quite as hard. He was a beautiful golden color and was just so cool looking.

I managed to catch three nice fish – including one very colorful rainbow – out of the boat the rest of the way out. The wind was consistently on us all day, so we were pushed down the river pretty quickly – we were off the river by 6:30pm. We did the dinner thing, tied a bunch of flies, shot the shit with Jason (Chad's neighbor) and Eric and then went to bed.

Saturday, April 19, 2008 – Bighorn River, Ft. Smith, MT

Flows around 1,920 cfs, water was clear. The morning was nice about 38 degrees, the early afternoon was great – around 73 degrees, then around 4pm a front blew in, the wind kicked up going up river and the afternoon got very very cold. Floated with Dave from 3 Mile to Bighorn access.

Waited for Paul and Doug, but no sign of them by 8:30 so we decided to hit the water – we had to do 4 guys in Dave's boat so the lower section seemed like a good idea. We only fished two holes – the Shelf and the Colorado Club – both were AMAZING.

We hit the Shelf first and the fishing started out very slow. Dave went down river and Matt and Nate and I fished the shelf section and the spin out. I decided that I was going to fish tiny flies today – size 20 and 22 Killer midges and some JuJu's that Chad had tied the night before. I had plenty of both in my box. I fished the shelf in the foam line and hooked 7 fish landing 4 of them. One of the fish took me 200 feet out to the channel and popped me off. I would have liked to see him. I did manage to catch some nice fish – including a 19.5 inch whitefish that was just in beat up shape. I hooked him and he barely fought – I dragged him straight in and landed him – Matt got a nice picture of him for me. There was no doubt who would be taking home that whitefish trophy! This poor fish had one fin that was all beat up, huge rubber lips, some missing scales and just looked in bad shape.

We all started doing much better (except Nate) and landing fish. Matt slammed and landed probably the largest brown of the trip - he was a legitimate 20 inch brown that was colorful and thick. What a beautiful fish.



Dave did especially well too, he landed 2 huge rainbows within minutes of each other. They had to be 20 inches strong and solid thick rainbows. They were colorful and beautiful - these fish are the reason why we all fish - just for the chance of landing one of these beauties.



We were on the Shelf for at least 3.5 hours - so we decided to move on. Nate still was fishless - but not for long. While in the boat he landed 3 good sized rainbows - and the skunk was off!!! We moved down to the Colorado Club where Tim and his Dad waved us into a great hole as they were on their way out. They had done pretty well in the hole and wanted to go across river to fish where a guide had just been having some great luck and landing tons of fish. They hung out and I jumped right in and landed a fat brown on my first cast. I knew this spot was going to be good.

Dave and I fished the upper run, while Nate and Matt fished the lower run. Dave and I traded fish for about 2.5 hours. I hooked a ton of browns, most were about the same size - 17 to 18 inches - with the occassional smaller and the occassional larger fish. All the fish faught nicely - often times running straight out to the middle of the river and hunkering down before I'd have to yank them into the shallower water and land them. Dave catches tons of huge fish and he put on a show in this hole. Every time I looked at him he had his rod bent and was pulling in a fish. You can tell he wasn't a rookie like me, as I hooted and hollered when I caught a fish, but Dave was always dead quiet, going about his business. He's also one of the most knowledgable guys on that river that I know. He knows every hole, every shelf, all teh birds, all the history, all the hatches, all the flies, the different types of fish, etc. He was actually guiding us and didn't realize it - actually, he probably does realize it as he had to row the extra 200 lbs of people down the river.

At 4pm the weather turned ugly. The sun went behind the clouds and the wind started kicking up - you could see storm clouds rolling in over the mountains, and the air got very cold. The wind chill must have been about 35 degrees colder than the air, and it was blowing up river. Dave continued to row us down river - with Nate fishing from the back, Matt fishing from the front and me just hunkered down trying not to throw the boat off. It was a pretty quiet, but long float to Bighorn Access. I threw one cast in a fishy hole and landed one nice rainbow. Almost at the take out, Dave switched spots and let Nate row - soon after Dave caught his first fish out of his own boat - a nice brown that was very colorful!



We landed at Bighorn Access, mostly frozen, loaded the truck and got back to Cottonwood. Dave headed home and we waited for Chad, Jason and Eric. They were in a raft and we thought with that wind there was no way they'd be back until at least 9pm - but they pulled in around 8:20pm. It was a great day of fishing after a slow day on Friday. It was just what we needed. We just made dinner and hung out - tried to play some cards and then hit the sack.

On Sunday we thought about fishing - but the weather was very cold and the wind was up - so we thought otherwise and were on the road by about 8:30 am.
It was another great trip. I'd like to thank Dave (Blackotter) for putting up with all of us and for rowing us down the river. He didn't have to do it, but he never complained and was a great fishing companion. Thanks again Dave!

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Hockey 4/15 Tuesday League

1 goal, 1 assist
Played D
played with Dean
Chris was not the goalie
win 8-5

Friday, April 11, 2008

Hockey 4/10 Thursday League

1 goal
played D
Phantoms
Played with Dean and Brian
Matt goalie
lost 9-4

Friday, April 04, 2008

Hockey 4/3 Thursday league

2 goals 1 assist
played D
Phantoms
Played with Dean and Brian
John goalie
won 9-3

Hockey Game 4/1 Tuesday League

2 goals, 1 assist
Played D
subbed for TDTQ
Chris goalie
3 new ringers on team
won 7-4

Saturday, March 29, 2008

brandon722 Saturday, March 29, 2008 - South Platte River - Cheesman Canyon

Saturday, March 29, 2008 - South Platte River - Cheesman Canyon
Flows 101 cfs - water was crystal clear. Weather was bright deep blue sky with puffy clouds - 30 degrees in the morning and over 60 degrees by the afternoon - just a perfect weather day.

Cabo and I met Chad and his buddy Michael at Cheesman at around 7am. If you can believe it - I was the first car in the lot - this is a first. Usually there is always someone in there early, and 7am is hardly early for that place. I was feeling kind of sick, so I didn't really want to go - but I thought it would make me feel better. I started losing steam around noontime and was headed back to the truck around 1pm. I managed to catch one brown - very colorful, about 16 inches long, but snake skinny. I really couldn't find the fish and I am turned off to Cheesman - the place just doesn't fish the way it used to.

I got back to the truck and headed to Deckers - where I'm more familiar with where the fish are. The water was offcolored because the weather was so nice and Muddy Creek was flowing in at the bridge in Deckers. I did manage one tiny rainbow on a SJW. Then the wind started getting to me and we left. I was home by 3:15pm. Now I feel like crap and need to sleep.

Just a couple of other thoughts - it was amazing to see so many grasshoppers out for March. They were everywhere, but obviously the water wasn't high enough to see any kind of "hatch". I did see a ton of caddis as well that were flying all over the place.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

Saturday, March 15, 2008 - South Platte River above Chatfield

Saturday, March 15, 2008 - South Platte River above Chatfield
Cold morning - around 28 degrees at 7am, 50 by noontime. Flows were about 41 cfs and the water was slightly off color.

I'm not going to write much because it was a waste of our time. The river was frozen, the water was very low (from what we heard it was much much higher the week before and fishing great). Looking at the chart it was flowing at 120 cfs last weekend - so 3X what it was today. Nate and I hit the river and decided to fish our way from the bridge in Chatfield to the mouth of the reservior. We had heard that the fishing was great the weekend before with a friend of mine pulling our a 22 inch rainbow. I have never had success on this stretch as it seems stagnant and smells aweful. We fished a nice looking stretch early - then I worked my way down river to the delta - only to see the thing completely frozen all the way down - no where to fish.

We fished back down under the bridge, and I snapped off in a bush overhanging the water and reeled in - I was done. We were home by 11:15am. It was nice to fish so close to home - but we didn't even SEE a fish! It was nice to check this stretch out though - so I'm looking forward to tossing streamers at the delta for walleyes and trout. There were a lot of people out there today - most of them cursing Charlie Meyers for writing that article in the Post a couple of weekends ago!

Saturday, March 01, 2008

Saturday, March 1, 2008 - South Platte River - Deckers

Saturday, March 1, 2008 - South Platte River - Deckers
Beautiful day, 60 degrees, partly cloudy, windy, 37.8 cfs and water was slightly off color.

Finally got a chance to get out, and I picked a fantastic weather day to do it. It was cool in the morning, but it warmed up by late morning. The water is deathly low down there on the Platte. Sad to see that there is an ice shelf above the water line, the entire shelf is sloped towards the water maybe 6 inches above it - a sign that the water level was higher at one time. The ice shelf was easily 8 inches thick. With such low flows, there was a lot more shore line than expected - you could walk up and down the river without being on the "bank". Cabo and I fished between the two bridges - starting at the pull out just below the bridge at Deckers. I got down there at 7:30, jumped in and headed for the long island upstream. I fished the far side of the island - seeing a couple of smaller fish further up, but they were already spooked. I fished right to the bridge and then headed down the other side of the island. Almost all the way down I hooked into a nice fish - he pulled me into some faster water, but I managed to pull him to the side and landed him. He was a nice think 14 inch rainbow. I hooked him on a tiny green body and black head midge - which I tied on after I got a snag and pulled up a stick - tons of husks were attached to the stick and I squeezed one to see what was inside. Out popped a nymph that had a neon green body with a black head and black legs. So I tied on a similar midge.

I moved down the river hitting all the usual spots with no luck - I even tried a streamer to no avail. A lot of the places were very skinny due to the low water and there was a lot of sandy areas that previously held rocks or fishy looking spots. I moved all the way down to the lower bridge right next to the huge rock. I hooked a handful of small rainbows - I knew they were there and went after them on purpose. I landed only a couple - not really worried about bringing them to hand because they were pretty fiesty and just as small! I promised the wife I'd be home by around 1pm so she could go for a bike ride - so I left at about 11:45. I was just glad to get out, and it was a good morning.

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Sunday, January 13, 2008 - South Platte River - Cheesman

Sunday, January 13, 2008 - South Platte River - Cheesman
Flows 42 cfs - water was crystal clear. Weather was bright deep blue sky - but cold cold cold - only about 20 degrees at around 11am and maybe 34 degrees around 1pm - if you were in the sun, you froze.

I really didn't want to fish today, but Chad talked me into it - and since I hadn't fished in almost 2 months I thought what the heck. I got down there and into the canyon around 11am. Met up with Chad at the big riffle - he was chatting with Carlp and SurferSean from the board - it was very cool to meet those guys.

I hooked and landed a little brown right off - it was just above the big riffle. He didn't fight very hard - but it was nice to get the skunk off early. He was only about 12 inches long and skinny like a snake. I was excited because he took one of my new soft hackles that I tied - with a bead head and a stretch magic ribbing body with a hens hackle behind the bead. Thanks Charlie for helping me out with this!

I fished my way up and back down the river and was just about done for the day at around 2pm. I perched my self on a rock set up high about 8 feet or so right next to the river and just watched. I didn't see a whole lot when I finally noticed a fishes white mouth open and close right in the narrows of where the water flows between two rocks. He wasn't huge, but he looked colorful - I thought he was a rainbow. He was about 14 inches long and I kept trying to throw my flies in front of him, but he wouldn't take. It was more like a game of cat and mouse and I was losing. I lost my whole rig on the rock right in front of the trout - but he didn't even flinch. I re-rigged and decided to try something tiny - since he didn't want anything I was previously throwing. I tied on a fly I had just gotten from one of the swaps on the other boards and within three casts I had him on. I managed to get down off the rock and land the fish. He was nice looking and I got him back in the water quickly - I landed him with the net and my hands barely touched the fish or the water but they started burning immediately. It was that cold. I brought a towel this time and wiped my hand and stuck it in my pocket quickly. The fly was a size 22 peacock quill that troyallgood had tied - it has to be the easiest fly to tie ever - but it WORKED!

I wait for Chad below the family pool, but when he wants to fish (and his wife and kids are out of town - so he was going to be there all day!) he'll fish until dark. I jetted.

It was nice scenery - and actually very busy in the canyon, I probably saw 30 people. But, that said, I should have stayed home and hung out with the family.

Sunday, December 30, 2007

The list

For prosperity I wanted to get this list in writing:

My Top 10:

1. Elisabeth Shue - Cocktail, Adventures in Babysitting, Back to the Future, Leaving Las Vegas, The Saint



2. Amber Valletta - Transporter 2



3. Reese Witherspoon - Sweet Home Alabama, Legally Blonde, Walk the Line




4. Diane Lane - Under the Tuscan Sun,The Perfect Storm, The Outsiders




5. Jessica Simpson - mainly a singer, Dukes of Hazzard





6. Julia Stiles - Save the Last Dance, Bourne Identity, Down to You, Mona Lisa Smile, 10 Things I Hate About You



7. Lindsay Lohan - Parent Trap (ok, that was weird), Georgia Rules




8. Jessica Biel - Summer Catch





9. Isla Fisher - Wedding Crashers





10. Tea Leoni - Fun with Dick & Jane, Bad Boys












Updated on 6/3/09 - added Amber Valletta, deleted Angie Harmon
Updated on 9/5/08 - added Isla Fisher
Dropped out - Melanie Griffith, Marg Helgenberger

Sunday, November 18, 2007

Sunday, November 18, 2007 - South Platte River - Deckers

Sunday, November 18, 2007 - South Platte River - Deckers
Flows about 156cfs, water was slightly off color, morning was cold (40's) and the late morning was 60 degrees or so.

Chad and I did a quick half day trip to Deckers. Met hom at the last lot down the dirt road to Wigwam at about 6:30. As I was gearing up Chad already hooked into a pig. I hurried down and snapped a coupel pics for him.





He was oof to a good start. I did manage one fish in that stretch and you'll just have to believe me when I say it was 6 inches. Not much to brag about. Chad hooked another pig that I helped net and photgraph again.





There was another pig in the same spot, but we couldn't entice him to bite. I moved down a bit and hooked a dink. We tried the mini canyon with little luck. It started getting a bit crowded and hot, so we hiked back to the trucks and moved down river to right by the Deckers stores. Chad was into fish immediately and I worked the downed logs. The river has changed a bit down there. I managed two more dinks. Chad disappeared and soon returned in his truck, he was on his way out. I fished for about 10 minutes more and finally hooked a nice fish - a colorful 17 inch or so rainbow.





After that I was done - back to the truck and drove home - I was home by 12:20!

Funny thing happened while we were on the river. This silver Chevy Malibu stopped next to us while we were fishing the big rock and told Chad that they were hunting ducks. Three guys crammed into this little car on the back roads. Well, we went back to fishing - thinking nothing of it. Well, suddenly there was a shot - scared the poop out of us, even though we knew it was coming. Just one shot, that was it. Then, we saw the car drive back out about 5 minutes later. That just seemed funny - not exactly the hunting car I was expecting. And I thought we'd hear more than one shot - or that the guys would camp out there or something. I guess it was just a shoot and run.

Friday, November 09, 2007

Funniest bastid alive!

This guy is easily the funniest guy alive - he needs his own show - seriously!

http://www.townienews.com/

Monday, October 29, 2007

Boston Red Sox are World Series Champs in 2007!

I'm not going to gloat or rub this in. Honestly, it wasn't as sweet as 2004, and didn't seem as dramatical or without its critics. We won, we swept, we owned, and all of the above. We were definitely the best team in the league this season.

That said, I'm very happy for the Colorado Rockies who accomplished something amazing. I'm happy for the young kids on this team, and I'm happy for the wiley veterans who deserved a second one. I'm happy for the fans who stuck with this team and loved it like it should be loved.

This thing was a foregone conclusion after the Sox beat the Indians. And again, not as sweet as waiting 86 years and being the terrible underdog for many many years. The announcers just didn't have the bounce in their voices, actually quite the opposite. Most announcers were busy ball washing the Rockies and ignoring the Red Sox. Aaron Cook was having a terrific game holding the Red Sox offense to 2 hits and 1 run - huh? Before this series you were talking about how great the Rockies offense was - now Jon Lester has given up 2 hits and NO runs and you don't even mention it. That's crap.

Now that the WS is over, we have a lot of work to do. Mike Lowell, Curt Schilling, Tim Wakefield, Mike Timlin, finding a spot for Ellsbury, the minor league system, adding a younger SP, adding some RP, is there a way to trade a Lugo or Drew?, finding a young catcher in the minors or somewhere. We do have our share of question marks. It will still be a fun offseason.

Even more fun will be seeing the Yankees in demise. ARod gone, Posada/Rivera next? Clemens gone, Abreau staying. Pettitte gone? Damon sucking. Mussina aging. All the coaching in NY gone! No bullpen, no young pitching (except Hughes). No young position players. The will overpay for someone - Andruw Jones? Who else? Good times. Team is totally in disarray.

Who will step up next season? Blue Jays? Orioles? Probably not. Should be a fun offseason.

The Red Sox are World Series champs, let's now move on to building a dynasty.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

3-0 Red Sox

Ok, let's get this straight - I don't dislike the Rockies. If they were playing any other team I'd be routing for them - although playing the AL, I wouldn't expect much from them.

Now, I really would like to see this game go back to Fenway so Boston fans can see them win it at home - but I really don't want that to happen - I want them to end it tonight.

I wouldn't mind this thing going to game 5 either - the Rockies winning one (instead of getting embarrassed) and the state of Colorado getting another few million dollars worth of fans money would be a VERY good thing - but I'd rather end it tonight.

As for a sweep - I think it is possible - the Rockies have been pummelled and have no mental edge and have been reduced to infants. Jon Lester is an unknown - although he is more of a known than Aaron Cook. Lester pitched in the ALCS and did well - Cook hasn't pitched in months. The Sox are going to feast on Cook - that is a given. Lester could either get shelled or throw a perfect game tonight. I could see the crafty kid really putting the screws to the Rockies - and that would be just fine with me.

Pedroia and Ellsbury were spectacular tonight and I think Pedroia is 2 hits away from wrapping up MVP. Of course, if Ellsbury gets 2 doubles tonight we might be splitting the award - which is something I am definitely hoping for. 2 rookies leading off the top of the order is unheard of and certainly without precedent. To think this is the future of the organization (with Youks, Paps, Buchholz, Lester, MDC) is amazing. This could very well be the start of a dynasty.

I look forward to the offseason - just like everyone else, but it all comes down to tonights game - win it all tonight and it makes it a very very special year. Win it for all of us. Win it like everyone knows you can.

Friday, October 26, 2007

Sox up 2 games to 0

This is not surprising - the Sox being at home and all. Actually these are the things that are NOT surpsing to me:

  1. Sox have 15 walks in 2 games.
  2. Sox scored 13 runs in game 1.
  3. Sox have scored 15 runs in 2 games.
  4. Sox bullpen is on fire.
  5. Schilling had a decent game.
  6. The top of the order is on fire - but Ortiz and Manny are getting pitched around.
  7. Mike Lowell is pushing for MVP.
  8. Dustin Pedroia hit the second pitch of the WS into the Monster seats.
  9. It was completely silent at work on Thursday and Friday after the Rockies lost both games.
  10. Everyone here in CO is blaming the 8 day layoff for the Rockies losses.
  11. It took only one loss for some sports writer in Denver to write about the Sox payroll and how the Rockies can't compete.
  12. Helton looks horrible. Brad Hawpe is getting exposed.
  13. Matt Holliday is an MVP candidate for the next 10 years.
  14. The Rockies can't hit Red Sox pitching.
  15. Clint Hurdle is an idiot.
  16. The NL is just ten classes below the AL.
  17. This series will end before the series goes back to Fenway.

Sad, but true. The Sox are just putting up baserunners, and scoring just enough to win. The bullpen is en fuego and no one in the other 49 states is surprised. The lack of a DH will take out one good hitter out of the lineup - but that means when DiceK goes 5 innings tomorrow night you have Youkilis coming off the bench. The Rockies don't have as good a PH as the last guy (Alex Cora) on the Sox bench. So where is the edge? The Sox still have a better lineup and much better pitching.

And how the hell is Josh Fogg pitching in the World Series? Let's be reminded of Josh Fogg's career stats: 60 wins 60 losses 4.90 era 1.46 whip .286 baa. ouch. did I mention that he's never won more than 12 games in a full season? he's had era's of over 5.00 in 3 of his full 6 seasons. in 2006 his era was 5.49. he has a 6.06 era lifetime in Coors Field. going down the order this is what our line up has done to him:

Pedroia: not faced

Youks: 2/3 2B

Papi: 3/6

Manny: 2/6

Lowell: 6/16 2B HR

Drew: 4/21 2B 2 HR

Tek: 1/4

Ellsbury: never faced

Lugo: 4/19 2B

Cora: 6/11 2B HR

The Rockies on the other hadn haven't faced Matsuzaka. Edge has to go to DiceK. And all this talk about the curveball not working in Coors? So? DiceK has 5 pitches. Josh Fogg has 2? Advantage DiceK.

There is just no way in hell the Rockies get out of Coors Field alive.

Tuesday, October 23, 2007

Sox vs Rox World Series!

I couldn't have planned this any better myself - two hometown teams and the Sox have a chance to win it all again. First off, congratulations to the Colorado Rockies for doing the impossible and winning 21 out of their last 22 games to first get by the San Diego Padres to get into the playoffs, beating the Phillies in 3 straight games and then beating the Diamnodbacks in 4 straight to advance to their first World Series. Congratulations.

Now, let's break down everything the Rockies aren't:
-They played in the NL West - which is the crappiest division in all of baseball - period.
-Beating the Padres, Phillies and Diamondbacks would be like beating the Mariners, A's and Twins in the American League. That was hardly an impressive resume to hang your hat on. The American League is by far superior.
-You can't win with one ace pitcher - and the Rockies relying on Jiminez and Morales is going to turn out badly against the Red Sox. The Sox kill rookies, and they crush good pitching.
-A month and a half ago there wasn't a single Rockies fan out there - no one cared about this team! On September 16th (a Sunday) in a 13-0 win against the Marlins, the Rockies drew 19,161 fans - and their park holds 50,000+! That is an embarrassment.
-I was at the Giants game on eptember 3rd, and the Rockies drew 30,000 on Labor Day. And there really wasn't even that many fans there as the entire upper deck was empty.
-Lots of bandwagon fans and very little heart. These are the types of fans who envy the Sox fans, who wish they could feel the passion and enjoy the sweetness of a World Series win. Not gonna happen.
-The Rockies think they have overcome pressure - the World Series is a stage that eats up young teams. Veterans of these games come prepared, and the Red Sox have hardened veterans.
-The Sox have 2 aces and you'll have to face them twice in this series (but probably not). Aces win World Series.
-Half of the Rockies pitchers wouldn't even make the Red Sox roster.
-Boston fans are the best fans in the world - if this goes 6 or 7 games, you have no prayer - ask the Indians. Better win in Colorado or never.
-You don't have the middle of the order that the Red Sox do. Helton has little power, Holliday is great, Atkins will be average. You have a potential 2 run homer everytime Papi steps to the plate because Youks and Pedroia are always on ahead of him. Walk Papi and Manny will make you bleed. Lowell is an RBI machine - go ahead, pitch to him...
-You want heart and soul from a rookie? Pedroia and Ellsbury bleed Red Sox red.
-Enjoy Holliday, because the minute he's a FA he'll RUN away from Colorado.
-You don't have enough pitching. 21st in the league in WHIP was Aaron Cook, Francis was 23rd. If your pitchers even think about giving up baserunners, the Sox will kill them. They wear out arms, led the league in walks and pitches per AB.
-Yes, you are on a roll - but don't you think the Sox might be on a bigger roll? Coming back from a 3-1 game deficit, pounding the Indians 30-5 in the last 3 games. Winning the last two games by 9 runs or more. Yeah, that might be momentum.

Let's list the Rockies excuses when they get pummeled:
The Red Sox had the second highest payroll in baseball!
An 8 day layoff was just too much.
The umpires were against the Rockies (this is the old Denver Broncos excuse!).
The Rockies weren't used to using the DH. Damn AL rules.

As much as I'd like to join all my friends in Colorado and be all optimistic about the Rockies chances against the Red Sox, let's be realistic here! Take your emotions out of it and it is obvious that this Red Sox team is superior. All the wishful thinking you can muster won't make the Rockies stand up to the Sox.

I hate to say it, but I think the Sox could win this thing in 6 games - I'll give the Rockies the benefit of the doubt and say they can win 2 games. (I honestly think it will be a 5 game series).

Let the games begin!

Saturday, October 20, 2007

The Yankees are downsizing!

Well - it's been a few days since I last blogged - I haven't had much time, but then again, what would I blog about? The Sox have looked crappy and I don't have much hope for a WS birth. So, I'll just pray they win tonight and not dwell if they lose.

The big news is the Yankees - who appear to be downsizing from their payroll. They topped out 2007 at $200M+ which is $195.2M for the players and $7M for the manager - but that appears to be a bloated number for 2008. I know you are asking - when was the last time the Yankees downsized? Well, I don't know. But I do know that they could knock off almost 1/3 off that payroll with just players leaving.

The big news lately is that Joe Torre has rejected a 1 year incentive laiden contract offer. That alone will save $7M next year (before a replacement). But, let's do the math on the rest of the players that could be leaving:

$202.2M 2007 Payroll
-$7M Torre
-$27.7M ARod (could opt out)
-$10.5M Mo Rivera
-$12M Posada
-$15.6M Abreau
-$16M Pettitte (can opt out)
=$113.7M 2008 payroll before replacement costs

Holes that would remain = manager, C, 3B, RF, LHP, SP, bullpen, closer. So how will they fill these holes? If I was a betting man, I'd say the new owners (Georgies sons) will spend even more than they did in 2007 to make a splash, and why shouldn't they? They are the Yankees after all.

I'd have to guess they resign ARod at $30M, sign a manager at $1.5M (Girardi), go after Andruw Jones ($17M), resign Posada ($12M), Pettitte picks up his option ($16M) - that is $76M of the $89M reduction - and they would still have the bullpen (assuming Chamberlain becomes the closer) issues, and need a starting pitcher.

Bullpen help could be had for around $8M for 2 guys. The strater is a bigger issue. Rumor has it they are after John Santana - and he won't come cheap at all. I think he could get $15M a year in the long term. So - $76M + $8M + $15M = $99M or a $10M increase over 2007.

That would be quite an All Star team as well. Of course a lot of things have to happen for that to come true. If the Yankees continue to ignore the bullpen and the starting pitching, all the money in the world on Offense won't help.

I still like the Red Sox chances next season!

Edit: After the fact I remembered that Clemens in a FA also and will save the Yankees $17M of his pro-rated $25M. They will still find a way to spend it!

Friday, October 12, 2007

1 win down, 7 to go!

This teams just keeps looking better and better. The offense is coming alive at the perfect time. Manny and Papi are doing their thing, but Lowell, Drew, Tek and Lugo keep reaching base and hitting as well. In 10 plate appearances tonight, the combo of Ortiz and Manny reached base 10 times. Unreal.

The Sox will dominate this series because of a couple of things - strong veteran starters, veteran hitters, and the ability to chew up opposing teams bullpens. The Indians don't do anything special. Their starters are ok, but they aren't dominating. CC Sabathia has been pedestrian in prior years - so why is he so Cy worthy this season? If Beckett doesn't win the Cy it will be a shame. The Indians had two rookies in their lineup who were barely mediocre (Cabrera and Gutierrez), aged veteran hitters who honestly aren't that good anymore (Blake, Lofton, Nixon), two kids who have no playoff experience whatsoever (Garko & Sizemore) - the only stars they have are Hafner and Martinez (and maybe Peralta). I'm sorry, but that lineup is not very deep and not very experienced. Of course all Indians fans are going to throw out there that the Sox have loads more money than the Tribe, but that's not the point.

The Sox lineup has these kinds of guys down the order:
Dirt dog/high OBP
High OBP
Power
Power
Line drive/RBI machine
Slap hitter
Line drive hitting captain
Singles hitting defense whiz
Low avg slap hitter

Each one of these hitters is amazing at taking pitches and not swinging at balls. They wear pitchers down and make long ABs endless for opposing pitchers. This kills bullpens. So what the Yankees where shut out by the Indians bullpen. The Yankees had to swing the bats - the Sox don't! They will kill you with OBP like no other team in the league.

The Indians looked like joke tonight - CC Sabathia, who I have never been impressed with (and I have followed him for 4 years now since he has been on my fantasy team most of the time), looked horrible. One good inning and then the Sox stopped swinging at the slider - he was done after that. Carmona tomorrow night is basically a rookie - and he will get shelled as well - why? Because the Sox will make him throw 100 pitches by the 6th inning even if he hasn't given up a run yet. That bullpen will come in and get trounced.

Sox hitters will continue to poke at him. Papi and Manny will average 3 walks a game, Youks will probably get a couple hits or walks, andwith all those bodies on all we need is a hit or two from Lowell and Drew and that is 3 or 4 runs right there. Any production from the bottom of the order and that is gravy. Schilling can and will shut down the Indians lineup. He won't over power like Beckett, but he's smart - and will throw good out pitches. Young guys like Gutierrez and Cabrera will be up there looking to hit and not patient. The Indians will be pressing after an embarrassing loss the previous night. It's just going to be ugly.

If the Indians seriously think they can contend against this team, they need to get more out of their starters, get on base more and work pitchers, and do the little things that got them here - steal bases, hit HR's - something!

The Sox seem to be peeking at the right time - we are now 7 wins away from our second championship in 3 years and I like our chances.

Has anyone seen the NL teams starting Top 3? Webb, Davis & Hernandez or Francis, Jiminez & Fogg. Are you kidding me? How the hell did these teams make the playoffs. Your starting 3 is what wins you World Series. The Sox easily have the best Top 3 in the game. And the bullpens (which are less important when your top 3 os good) easily are even or in favor of the Sox. Again, I don't think the NL can compete - even with the Indians Top 3 and bullpen.

Mike Lowell

The Red Sox start their ALCS series tonight with the Indians - I could talk about that, but it has been covered in way too much detail.

I want to talk about Mike Lowell and what his future is. A Lowell quote came out today saying:
"I love it here and would love to re-sign here," Lowell said. "I’m making that clear. I’m happy with the year I had, and I know that’s going to set a certain thought to what’s going to happen in the offseason."

Of course this is a pretty wide open and politically correct statement - and he could change his tune after the WS and go to the highest bidder (which no one would blame him for doing).

I have been digging to try and find Lowell's value in the marketplace and on the Red Sox team. First, let's explore the marketplace.

Top FA this off season will be:
Mike Lowell (.324/21/120) - GG 3B
Alex Rodriguez (.314/54/156) (if he opts out) - GG 3B/SS - projected to go for $27-30M/yr
Aaron Rowand (.309/27/89) - GG OF - projected to be asking for $14M/yr
Torii Hunter (.287/28/107) - GG OF - projected to be asking for $15M/yr
Adam Dunn (.264/40/106) (club option) - 1B/OF - $13M/yr club option
Andruw Jones (.222/26/94) - GG CF - projected to want $20M/yr
Bobby Abreau (.283/16/101) - GG RF - making $15.6M/yr

Obviously there is only one 3B here, who is somehow in a pay class of his own, but you can see the astronomical asking prices of some other guys on this list how are comparable to Lowell. Lowell and ARod are coming off the best years. Jones/Dunn/Rowand/Hunter are the youngest. Dunn/Jones/Abreau had off years from their averages.

The Rowand projected salary is off base - the guy is great on D and has decent avg and pop, but he's not a game changer. He's more of a 5th hitter than a 3rd or 4th hitter on most teams.

Dunn is obviously a clean up hitter - but he strikes out so often, that $13M sounds about right for his 40 HRs and 200 K's.

Abreau at $15M is stupid too - especially since his OBP and SB's have decreased at his age. I could see him settling in the $12-13M range for 2 or 3 years.

Hunter has had a quiet bat for many years, although some of that is made up by his GG and game changing ability. But $15M/yr? No way. I'd give him $13M maybe.

Andruw Jones is a great player on a down year - but $20M? That is Manny type money - and Manny is overpaid as well. I could see Andruw getting $16M/yr max. He is a prototypical #4 hitter and would be a great addition in a difficult position.

ARod gets to name his own price after the year he just had. Clubs will try desparately to point at his production in the post season, but come on - its a team game. He will get more than the $25M he is making now. Will it be $30M? I hope not - that is just bad for the game. Will ARod take the highest bidder? I doubt it. I think he will choose his situation better this time. The ownership thing was intriguing in Chicago, but maybe ARod wants to BE the franchise at his next stop. In chicago he would be the headliner, but I can't see him playing in a cold weather city. I could see him settling in a city that is warm and forgiving. Would the Giants pay for him? Would Seattle try and get him back? Would the Astros be a good fit? Maybe the Brewers? Who knows. I think the Cubs will be his landing spot - not sure why.

That brings us back to Lowell. The guy is making $11M/yr now - he probably didn't earn that $11M the previous 2 seasons, but he certainly did this season. I would estimate that he was probably worth $13M or so - which would probably make up for the mediocre season the year before. Which is why he "might" sign for a slight discount (in dollars or years) with the Sox.

Lowell is getting up there in age, so when we think of years of a contract, we have to take that into consideration. Either he gets more dollars and a shorter contract, or less dollars and a slightly longer contract. His value to the Red Sox is huge - the Sox will have a corner infield hole next season without him, and looking at the FA market, filling that hole would have to be via trade. There are few good corner infielders out there - and the couple that are (Kotchman and Miggy Cabrera) would cost an arm and leg in a trade. And the Sox will not trade Buchholz or Ellsbury, so those trading pawns are off limits and one or both would have to be included for Miggy.

So that leaves dollars available - thus a FA would have to be signed. So that means the SOx would have to seem interested in Lowell a lot - which will slightly drive up his price. The Sox went out and signed Drew at $14M/yr last year - so I would think that would be a starting point. Drew is younger than Lowell and has a slightly better offensive track record, but is more injury prone. Lowell and Drew are GG caliber players at their positions.

Bottom Line:
I see Lowell asking for $14M and settling for a $12.5M/yr 3 year deal with the Sox.

I hope I am right.

Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Saturday, October 6, 2007 - Cheesman Canyon

Saturday, October 6, 2007 - Cheesman Canyon
Flows about 420, water was tinted green, but the day was a gorgeous blue sky and about 70 degrees in the canyon.

Decided to fish with Chad early in the morning and do a half day. Took Cabo along to keep me company and get her out of the house and away from the constant tormenting by Avelyn. I think she enjoyed it, but she whined the whole time.

Got to the Gill Trail lot at 5:45 - I was the second car there, Chad's was the first! The hike in was very dary as the trees are close together and leaves still out. I used a headlamp to see my way, which was good because then I could track Cabo's glowing eyes as she always stayed up ahead. Dropped down the first path to the family hole and found Chad - we moved below the waterfall and I started fishing. I used a big olive bugger and a size 18 czech nymph in green. I hooked a fish in the shallow stuff, but never got to land him - I did see him though - he was a silvery rainbow about 14 inches. He went after the czech - so we stuck with them for a while. The light started breaking and it became easier to see. I moved up - hopping above the family pool completely to big rock. Chad was in this spot, so I kept moving. I moved into the long long rifle with the big rock on the left. I hooked and landed a nice thick rainbow about 17 or 18 inches. He didn't fight overly hard, but he wouldn't come directly to the net. He took a size 20 red PT. While I was fighting him, another fish about the same size came and swam between me and the fish - about 18 inches away from my foot. He just hung out as I landed the fish. Cabo enjoyed seeing the piggy and gave it a "kiss" before it's release.

Chad and I kept leapfrogging each other - I moved up to the next flat area and as I was walking on the bank I spooked a fish, but noticed two others that hadn't spooked - one was a 17 inch rainbow that was litterally 2 feet away from my leg right up close to the bank, but with grass over hanging and a slow slow drift I had no clue how to get a fly to him. This fish acted very weird however - he was attacking clumbs of weeds that were floating by, he would bite it and shake his head and do it three or four times to the same clump. It looked like he was eating the weeds. He did it a few times too. I fished to him for about 20 mins, and finally hooked him (on a size 20 red and silver wire striped zebra) - but when I tried to back down river to not spook a few other fish, he popped off - although went right back to his spot. Every fish this morning seemed to be inches from the bank. When you walked the bank you would spook fish after fish - some were pretty large too.

The water seemed to get more and more off color as the day went by. Not much more to tell you about the day - I caught a small 13 inch brown (on a soft hackle size 20 black zebra with a gold bead) that was the most fiesty fish if the day - other than that nothing. We only fished until noon and then headed out of the canyon. I was home by about 1:30. It was a beautiful day and I was glad to get fishing again.

EDIT: I forgot to mention that as I was hiking back towards the canyon opening after the day, I stopped at the same spot that I saw the first next to shore - there wasn't a fish to be seen. I did see tons of huge - 4 inches long in some cases - grasshoppers, but they would only jump once and then lose their energy. They were either on their last legs or they were still chilled from the chilly night. I grabbed a few and tossed them in - I watched to see if they faught or if they just floated away. They seemed to be floating away with no fight. I didn't think anything of it and continued my walk down the bank. I immediately saw a fish down river about 20 feet away - about 12 inches off the bank and feeding. I walked back upstream to see if I could find another grasshopper - I tossed it in about 18 inches off the bank and it slowly drifted down river. The fish came up and slurped in the huge bug - the fish was probably only about 13 inches - so that must have been a HUGE mean! So I grabbed another and tossed it in again - this time I tossed it about two feet out to see if the fish would give chase - and he did - slurped that sucker up as fast as possible. 8 inches of grashoppers has to be enough protein to feed a fish for a day that is twice that size. But he stuck in his spot, waiting for more. I wanted to tie on a hopper, but didn't want to cut off my nymphs when I'd be leaving soon. I tried to wade out to the middle and cast back, but when I got out there, Cabo decided to come down the bank and spook the fish. Oh, well.