Saturday, October 20, 2007

The Yankees are downsizing!

Well - it's been a few days since I last blogged - I haven't had much time, but then again, what would I blog about? The Sox have looked crappy and I don't have much hope for a WS birth. So, I'll just pray they win tonight and not dwell if they lose.

The big news is the Yankees - who appear to be downsizing from their payroll. They topped out 2007 at $200M+ which is $195.2M for the players and $7M for the manager - but that appears to be a bloated number for 2008. I know you are asking - when was the last time the Yankees downsized? Well, I don't know. But I do know that they could knock off almost 1/3 off that payroll with just players leaving.

The big news lately is that Joe Torre has rejected a 1 year incentive laiden contract offer. That alone will save $7M next year (before a replacement). But, let's do the math on the rest of the players that could be leaving:

$202.2M 2007 Payroll
-$7M Torre
-$27.7M ARod (could opt out)
-$10.5M Mo Rivera
-$12M Posada
-$15.6M Abreau
-$16M Pettitte (can opt out)
=$113.7M 2008 payroll before replacement costs

Holes that would remain = manager, C, 3B, RF, LHP, SP, bullpen, closer. So how will they fill these holes? If I was a betting man, I'd say the new owners (Georgies sons) will spend even more than they did in 2007 to make a splash, and why shouldn't they? They are the Yankees after all.

I'd have to guess they resign ARod at $30M, sign a manager at $1.5M (Girardi), go after Andruw Jones ($17M), resign Posada ($12M), Pettitte picks up his option ($16M) - that is $76M of the $89M reduction - and they would still have the bullpen (assuming Chamberlain becomes the closer) issues, and need a starting pitcher.

Bullpen help could be had for around $8M for 2 guys. The strater is a bigger issue. Rumor has it they are after John Santana - and he won't come cheap at all. I think he could get $15M a year in the long term. So - $76M + $8M + $15M = $99M or a $10M increase over 2007.

That would be quite an All Star team as well. Of course a lot of things have to happen for that to come true. If the Yankees continue to ignore the bullpen and the starting pitching, all the money in the world on Offense won't help.

I still like the Red Sox chances next season!

Edit: After the fact I remembered that Clemens in a FA also and will save the Yankees $17M of his pro-rated $25M. They will still find a way to spend it!

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